Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Pemex's investments: in or out of the budget?

This year, Pemex's investments are included in the public sector finances, which explains why we've seen increases on the order of 75% in real terms in public sector investments at the same time that companies complain that the infrastructure program hasn't taken off. However, the section on expenditures in the 173 page "Perspectives and Economic Agenda for 2010-2015" document that complemented the 2010 budget presented to Congress last night consistently cites expenditures excluding Pemex's investments.

Net: Read the definitions closely. The government includes Pemex's investments when it wants to emphasize that it's implementing an expansionary fiscal policy. When the deficit will be uncomfortably large, as is the case in 2010, the numbers the government presents excludes investments by Pemex. Voila! A public sector borrowing requirement of about 4% of GDP is a deficit equal to 0.5% of GDP. Both statements are true: the former includes borrowing for Pidiregas and Pemex's investments; the latter does not.

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