PRI redux

Since 1997, the president's party has lost the mid-term elections. This year was no exception. President Calderon's personal popularity didn't translate into a vote for the PAN.

The magnitude of the PRI's victory was startling. The PRI not only is expected to more than double its number of seats (from 106 to 233-237), it won five of the six gubernatorial races. The PRI's gains came at the expense of the PRD, which lost 55 seats, and the PAN, which lost 64 seats. Although the Greens picked up 4 seats, the other small parties lost 17.

The correlation of forces in the new Chamber of Deputies will be radically different. The PRI replaces the PAN as the largest single party. If the PRI can count on the votes of the Greens, it will have an absolute majority. The PAN will not even have the votes to sustain a presidential veto in the Chamber, which controls the budget. The election results boot the PRD out if its second force" slot into a distant third, with half the number of seats (72) as the PAN's 143.

Abstention was high -- 55.3%. Three out of five Mexicans (60.9%) opted out, if those voters who cast blank ballots are included. Almost as many Mexicans chose to cast a blank ballot (5.6%) as voted for the PT and Convergencia combined (6.2%).

Will the PRI's victory make the passage of the much-needed reforms more or less likely? That depends on how the party's leaders read the costs and benefits of enacting reforms in the 2012 elections. If the PRI believes that voters will blame Calderon and the PAN for unpopular reforms such as a levying value-added tax on food and medicines, then we could see the fiscal reform for which technocrats have waited so long. Otherwise, we'll be in a holding pattern until Mexico's next president takes office 3 1/2 years from now.

Are Cabinet changes in the offing? Probably, considering the PAN's dismal performance at the ballot box and that pre-election polls gave the Cabinet only a 35% approval rating.