1995?

2009 won't be 1995 all over again. In some ways, it will be worse.
Between the most recent data that's been published on the Mexican economy (which tells us what was happening three months ago...) and the AH1N1 virus, the contraction this year will be close to the 6.2% nosedive the economy took fourteen years ago.
Why worse? Because even in 1995, not all of the economy contracted. Exports grew, creating jobs and mitigating the economy's fall. This year, exports are plunging and, worse yet, no one expects an export boom next year. The domestic economy hasn't been -- and won't be -- able to complement exports as Mexico's "motor of growth". So, if we don't have export-led growth, we're not likely to have much growth at all.
Deborah Riner